The math on 2,600 active subscriptions by December 31, the three things standing in the way, and the move that gets there. Everything below is built from your own numbers.
Thirteen weeks of your orders data, no spin. Active subscriptions top out at 2,201 on September 21, then fall. The week of October 5 is the first time in the window that cancellations beat new subs badly.
Source: orders export, weeks of Jul 13 – Oct 5 (13 weeks); Meta ads export, last 30 days; Q4 brief (target and budget).
What happened in thirteen weeks, and where the next twelve take us under three scenarios. The scenario lines are models — the assumptions sit under each one.
12 more weeks at the current pace: 2,044 active subscribers (−96). Target: 2,600.
Solid line: your actuals (13 weeks). Dashed line: model projection, 12 weeks. Assumptions: current pace holds Oct's new-sub rate (58/wk) and Sep's churn (66/wk), spike excluded; "with the plan" holds new subs at the modelled 110/wk; "+ retention fix" also drops churn to 50/wk. Post-holiday seasonal churn is not modelled — it would cut both ways.
Last 30 days. Only the roaster-morning prospecting set is under the $42 ceiling. Both retargeting sets are over it on 63-day-old creative at 6.8 and 5.1 frequency.
New subs have fallen 13 weeks straight (88 → 58). Cancellations climbed 41 → 66, then doubled to 114 the week of Oct 5.
Gift orders: 12/wk in July → 29/wk by Oct 5, 2.4× in 12 weeks. Still ~10% of one-time orders, and no campaign or flow is built to convert them.
Weekly churn extrapolated over 13 weeks. September's rate (63/2,201 ≈ 2.9%/wk) lands near 68% — just under the floor. October's (114/2,140 ≈ 5.3%/wk) lands near 49%.
Each one is visible in the charts above. Each one has a number attached.
Cancellations have climbed every week since July — 41 to 66 — then doubled to 114. At that rate, 90-day retention is ~49% against a 70% floor. Every new sub we buy in November pours into a leaky bucket. The 114 spike needs a diagnosis (payment failures vs. seasonal lapse) before we build the whole retention plan on it.
To hold churn near 66 and still reach 2,600 would take ~108 new subs a week — 86% above the current run rate. Black Friday is six weeks out and there is no Q4 creative ready in the account. The prospecting set that's winning is the roaster-morning video, at 12 days old.
$7,200 a month — 40% of the budget — goes to two retargeting sets at $60.56 and $45.31 CAC on 63-day-old creative. You told us on the kickoff call the retargeting feels stale; the export agrees. Meanwhile the one set under the ceiling has no retargeting version of itself.
Same $18,000 a month. Six rows, two of them new. The flatlay drops to a volume floor, the retargeting gets fresh creative and a new audience, and the roaster-morning angle — your own favorite — goes to work on the people who already bought a gift.
| Set | Now | Proposed | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prospecting — Roaster Morning Video | $5,400 | $6,600 | +$1,200 |
| Prospecting — Product Flatlay | $5,400 | $1,800 | −$3,600 |
| Retargeting — Site Visitors 30d | $4,300 | — | retired |
| Retargeting — Roaster Morning, fresh creative | — | $3,700 | new |
| Retargeting — Gift buyers, new audience | — | $3,000 | new |
| Retargeting — Cart Abandon (fresh creative) | $2,900 | $2,900 | flat |
| Total | $18,000 | $18,000 | — |
~460 subscriptions per 30 days — about 110 a week — at a blended CAC near $39. Prospect CAC is the observed $35.53; the fresh retargeting sets are modelled at $38–40 on a frequency reset from 6.8/5.1 down to ~2, which is an assumption, labelled as one. The flatlay keeps its observed $55.10 rate at the reduced spend.
Twelve more weeks, from the 2,140 you're at now: at the current pace, 2,044. The plan with churn unchanged, 2,668. The plan with churn down to 50 a week, 2,860. The target is 2,600 — the plan clears it, and the retention work is what makes it comfortable.
Audience: Fernhill gift purchasers, 60-day window. Wholesale and café owners excluded, per your note. These are drafts for your approval — nothing runs until you say so.
You sent them Fernhill. It's probably in their cupboard right now, and the first bag is already open. The next one is on you to make happen — the Winter Reserve box, 3 single-origin bags a month, starting with washed Ethiopian from the Guji zone. $54/month, and every bag is roasted within 48 hours of shipping. They got the gift. Now they get to keep the coffee.
You've held the gift. You know how it smells out of the bag. Now the question is who's drinking that coffee every morning — them, or you. Winter Reserve is 3 single-origin bags a month; this batch is honey-processed Colombian from Huila. $54/month, roasted within 48 hours of shipping.
The coffee you gave them is running low. Don't let the cupboard go empty between now and the new year. Winter Reserve: 3 single-origin bags a month — washed Guji Ethiopian, plus one origin we rotate each month. $54/month, roasted within 48 hours of shipping. Set it up before the holidays and January's mornings are already handled.
Brand rules held across all three: farm and process named, zero discount language, no “the best,” no emojis, roast promise in every primary.
Triggered when a gift order ships, sent to the buyer, suppressed for existing subscribers. The coffee is already in someone's kitchen — that's the whole asset, and nobody's using it yet. Gift orders are up 2.4× since July and peaking right on schedule for the holidays.
The gift you sent is in their cupboard. The first bag is probably already open — washed Ethiopian from the Guji zone, bright and tea-like. If they liked it, the easiest thing is to have it show up the same day every month. Winter Reserve, 3 single-origin bags, $54/month, roasted within 48 hours of shipping.
Six days in, the cup's empty. Someone liked it. Here's what's in the next rotation — this month, honey-processed Colombian from Huila. You can start their subscription, or send another box as a gift if this one was a trial run.
Thirteen days. If that was their last cup, we're sorry it ended. If they're running low, this is the moment — the Winter Reserve box starts next week and January's mornings are already handled. $54/month, roasted within 48 hours of shipping.
You approve every ad and every email before it runs. Here's the list, in the order they'd go live.
Prepared by Singulariti · October 2026 · Fernhill Coffee Roasters is a demo client — all figures synthetic, written 2026-10-13, safe to show.